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Argentina Rains As Scheduled, Oil Market Weakness Difficult To Change
Dec 19, 2017

The global market for legumes remained weak last week, mainly because of improved weather in Argentine regions and a drag on dollar interest rates and crude oil declines. In the United States, the end of the Friday close, the CBOT soybean main 01 contract closed at 968.4 cents/PO, the previous week fell 22.2 cents/po, a decrease of 2.2%. Argentina's soy-producing areas, as scheduled, rained off the market's enthusiasm for the La Nina Weather, and the U.S. bean fell for days. The original weather agency expected this year's La Nina climate is weak, so far the La Nina has not really caused substantial damage to the South American region, and even a number of international analysis agencies to raise the Brazilian soybean production estimates, in such a pattern, the global soybean supply will still suppress the plate price. The USDA monthly Report, released in Wednesday, was neutral, the U.S. soybean production remained unchanged, and exports dropped slightly, resulting in a slight increase in inventory at the end of the month, while South American production remains unchanged, with limited impact on the market. It is expected that the late U.S. soybean will be in the repeated weather speculation in the weak oscillation operation, but the market is still concerned about the late South American weather changes, once the South American weather any signs of trouble, the market may be a recovery rebound.

Oil, in Thursday by the decline of international crude oil prices dragged down domestic and foreign oil generally weak. Ma Tan, last week's November MPOB report on the rise in the stock of horse Brown in excess of market early estimates, bad horse brown price. In addition, since December, the horse brown export chain continued to decline, according to its data, horse Brown December 1-15th export volume of 596,862 tons, compared to November 660,465 tons of exports reduced 9.6%, while another shipping agency SGS data show the chain down 10.7%. Overall, Malaysia's palm oil export demand has slowed, and inventory pressure continues to increase. Domestic soybean oil (5770,-58.00,-1%) in accordance with the law of the past years, into December, soybean oil inventory began to decline, oil supply and demand inflection point, but this year to date, soybean oil inventory is still rising, inventory pressure is more significant. As of December 12, domestic soybean oil commercial stocks total 1.6795 million tons, compared with the same period last month 1.6151 million tons of 64400 tons increase of 3.99%, compared with the same period last year 929,400 tons 750,100 tons increased 80.71%. According to the current oil refinery and soybean to Hong Kong in the future, the domestic oil production rate is expected to remain high, soybean oil supply is still abundant, if the end of the consumer can not exert timely, I believe that before the end of the month, the weakness of soybean oil difficult to change. As of December 15, the domestic bean Brown spreads 1801 contract for 438 Yuan, 1805 contract 556 months, 1809 contract 680 yuan, the domestic bean brown spreads has fallen to nearly five years low.